The man who saved the world with human intuition, not data
In 1983, Russian TUNDRA space satellites picked up what looked like 5 American ICBM Missiles headed straight for Moscow.
Lt. Colonel Stanislav Petrov, for “reasons having to do with human intuition” decided not to report it up the chain…
Data can be valuable, but we cannot discredit the need for human intuition, especially in cases where the future is at stake.
We rely so much on data-driven decisions, assessments, scores, indicators.
At a recent event I attended, someone asked by what objective standards contestants for a pitch event would be selected as the winner.
As the presenter hemmed and hawed her way around an answer to say it was objective, it ultimately came down to her saying, “Sometimes, we can just believe in that person and know they’ve got what it takes to make this happen.”
What she was uncomfortable saying was, “Of course it is subjective!” Because that is the reality.
There is no objective way to say that one person’s business plan can even be compared to another’s objectively, especially when they serve different audiences, different ideas, and different outcomes.
In education, it may be great that 95% of students pass a certain benchmark, but what we must never forget is that for those 5% of students who didn’t pass that benchmark, they 100% don’t get it well enough.
In business, the data may say that we should stop doing a specific thing, but not doing that thing could alienate our most passionate customers.
Petrov later told Washington Post reporter David Hoffman “I had a funny feeling in my gut. Who starts a nuclear war with another nuclear superpower with 5 ICBMs?”
What simple questions can you ask to check the data and make the right decision?
Where do you find subjectivity and honor it?
I was reminded of this story from the book Nuclear War by Annie Jacobsen
Image made using DALL-E April 15, 2024
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